Every season, hope arrives disguised in training camp depth charts, younger rosters, and carefully spun coach speak. But strip away optimism and preseason highlight reels, and the NFL still revolves around a few cold truths: efficiency wins, quarterback stability matters more than anything, and roster depth is often the difference between playing in February or cleaning out lockers after Week 18.
With that framework, let’s dig into the 2025 season through a data-driven lens. We’ll power-rank the divisions, use efficiency metrics (EPA/play, success rate, and DVOA-style models) as guideposts, and then make a full playoff bracket prediction — all the way through Super Bowl LIX.
Division Power Rankings
1. AFC North
-
EPA/play, 2024 (avg across division): +0.05 (best in NFL)
-
Defensive success rate allowed: 41% (lowest among divisions)
Baltimore’s defense led the league in defensive EPA/play last year, thanks to elite situational football (top-3 in third-down stops, top-5 red zone efficiency). Lamar Jackson’s 0.13 EPA/play trailed only Mahomes and Stroud among AFC QBs. The Bengals, when Burrow was healthy, played at a +0.09 passing EPA clip — essentially the equivalent of the Eagles’ 2022 run.
Cleveland’s defense finished second only to the Jets in yards per play allowed and carried QB inconsistency. Pittsburgh — middle of the pack in offense (24th in EPA) — somehow finished above .500, a testament to Mike Tomlin’s culture.
Projected Order: Ravens 12–5, Bengals 11–6, Browns 10–7, Steelers 9–8
2. NFC East
-
Explosive play rate (20+ yards): Eagles 11.6% of snaps (2nd in NFL)
-
Defensive EPA, Cowboys 2024: -0.08/play (top-5)
Philly’s defense collapsed down the stretch last season, allowing +0.04 EPA/play after Week 10 (bottom-10). That drove their aggressive offseason trench additions. Offensively, Hurts and A.J. Brown remain a top-five EPA duo in the league. Dallas ranked 2nd in defensive success rate in 2024 and has the talent to control games, but their offense is volatile: six games above +0.12 EPA (elite), seven below -0.05 (bottom-tier). Predictability remains Mike McCarthy’s thorn.
The Giants were dead last in explosive-play rate last year (just 5.4%), but if Daniel Jones is stabilized by Brian Daboll’s tweaks, they can push back toward mediocrity.
Projected Order: Eagles 11–6, Cowboys 10–7, Giants 8–9, Commanders 6–11
3. AFC East
Buffalo ranked top-3 in early-down EPA per dropback but cratered in late-down efficiency, reflecting Josh Allen’s boom-or-bust approach. Miami was the league’s home-run hitter (league-best 12.1% explosive play rate), but their success rate (43%) ranked just 18th — feast-or-famine.
The Jets? With Rodgers healthy in limited snaps, they posted +0.08 passing EPA — fringe top-10. Without him, they were dead last in QB efficiency. That’s the entire division’s swing stat.
Projected Order: Bills 11–6, Dolphins 10–7, Jets 9–8, Patriots 5–12
4. NFC North
Detroit’s offensive line led the league in adjusted line yards and ranked 3rd in run-block win rate, which is why their EPA/play on third-and-short situations was second to none. Jared Goff’s EPA in play-action concepts was +0.18, making them devastating in scripted sequences.
Green Bay’s metrics were startling: from Week 10 on, Jordan Love ranked 3rd in QB EPA/play (+0.16). That’s not fluky; it’s elite. Chicago, meanwhile, saw replacement-level QB play in 2024 (-0.09 EPA/play, 31st in NFL). Caleb Williams’ margin for improvement is enormous.
Projected Order: Lions 11–6, Packers 10–7, Bears 7–10, Vikings 6–11
5. AFC West
The Chiefs’ offense ranked only 15th in EPA/play last season — their worst under Mahomes. But their defense carried them, finishing top-3 in DVOA for the first time in his career. Now with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and a maturing line, they quietly project as a better overall roster than either of their last two title runs.
The Chargers were top-8 in offensive EPA when Herbert was protected; bottom-6 when not. Harbaugh’s mandate is clear: stabilize the line, stabilize the team.
Projected Order: Chiefs 12–5, Chargers 9–8, Broncos 7–10, Raiders 6–11
6. NFC West
San Francisco ranked 1st in total DVOA, 2nd in success rate, and 1st in YAC per reception in 2024. Their floor is simply too high. Seattle and L.A. are caught in the NFL’s 7–10 purgatory range, competitive but capped. Arizona was middle-of-the-pack offensively after Kyler Murray returned (+0.01 EPA/play), and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. could bump them into relevance quickly.
Projected Order: 49ers 12–5, Seahawks 9–8, Rams 8–9, Cardinals 7–10
7. AFC South
Houston’s leap wasn’t smoke. Stroud’s rookie EPA/play of +0.12 was the best by a rookie since Mahomes in limited action. They finished top-5 in offensive DVOA and 6th in defensive red-zone efficiency. Jacksonville was one of the least trustworthy top-half teams — bottom-5 in turnover margin and late-game EPA allowed.
Projected Order: Texans 11–6, Jaguars 10–7, Colts 7–10, Titans 5–12
8. NFC South
Atlanta was dead last in dropback EPA in 2024, which explains the Cousins signing. With Robinson and Cousins, their offense projects as middle of the league. The Saints hung around at 9–8 despite finishing bottom-8 in explosive play rate. Tampa sputtered to just 5.1 yards per play offensively. Carolina? Rookie QB struggles gave them a league-worst 35% success rate.
Projected Order: Falcons 10–7, Saints 8–9, Buccaneers 7–10, Panthers 6–11
Playoff Picture
AFC Seeding
-
Chiefs (12–5)
-
Ravens (12–5)
-
Bills (11–6)
-
Texans (11–6)
-
Bengals (11–6)
-
Jaguars (10–7)
-
Dolphins (10–7)
Wild Card Round: Bengals over Texans, Bills over Jaguars, Ravens over Dolphins
Divisional: Chiefs over Bengals, Ravens over Bills
AFC Championship: Ravens over Chiefs
NFC Seeding
-
49ers (12–5)
-
Lions (11–6)
-
Eagles (11–6)
-
Falcons (10–7)
-
Cowboys (10–7)
-
Packers (10–7)
-
Seahawks (9–8)
Wild Card Round: Cowboys over Falcons, Eagles over Seahawks, Packers upset Lions
Divisional: 49ers over Packers, Eagles over Cowboys
NFC Championship: 49ers over Eagles
Super Bowl LIX: Ravens vs. 49ers
According to most win-probability models, these two teams project as the co-favorites: Baltimore’s defense posted the highest EPA/play prevention rate since the 2019 Patriots, while San Francisco has finished top-3 in DVOA for three straight years.
Where this tilts? The Ravens’ multidimensional QB play. Purdy is efficient within structure (+0.17 EPA/play), but Lamar can create outside of it, where plays generate the largest swings in win probability. In a razor-thin matchup, Baltimore’s ability to stay efficient on third down and in the red zone becomes the difference.
Projected Score: Ravens 27, 49ers 23
Lamar Jackson takes home Super Bowl MVP, cementing his status alongside Mahomes as the defining quarterbacks of this era.
The NFL cycles fast — teams can move from basement to bracket in a blink. But entering 2025, the shapes are clear: Ravens and 49ers as the top tier, Chiefs as the eternal looming threat, Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills as the tier-2 hunters.
In that sense, projecting Ravens over 49ers is both bold and safe at the same time. Bold, because nothing in the NFL truly runs straight. Safe, because the efficiency data says these are the two deepest, most complete rosters. Sometimes, the numbers and the narrative align.
